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Boston and Beyond

November 5, 2012

UMass-Lowell poll shows Brown leads by 1 point among likely voters in race for U.S. Senate

LOWELL – With less than 24 hours until Election Day, the race for U.S. Senate in Massachusetts between Republican incumbent Scott Brown and Democratic challenger Elizabeth Warren is extremely close, according to a new UMass Lowell-Boston Herald poll released yesterday.

The poll – which surveyed 956 Massachusetts registered voters, 800 of which were deemed likely voters, between Wednesday, Oct. 31 and Saturday, Nov. 3 – found that Brown has a 1 percent lead over Warren among likely voters, with 49 percent for Brown and 48 percent for Warren (with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points).

Warren has a 2 percent advantage over Brown among registered voters, with 49 percent for Warren and 47 percent for Brown (with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points).

"Elizabeth Warren now leads among registered voters, but Brown holds a one-point edge among likely voters. What these campaigns do on the ground to get out the vote is likely to determine the winner,” said Joshua Dyck, associate professor of political science and co-director of the UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion.

Looking at the race for the White House, the survey showed that President Barack Obama’s lead over Gov. Mitt Romney remains strong in Massachusetts: 57 percent of likely voters favor Obama over 37 percent for Romney and among registered voters, 59 percent were for Obama and 35 percent for Romney.

Other findings from the poll include:

- The number of voters who are undecided or could change their minds is down to 16 percent from 36 percent in September.
- Asked who would do a better job of looking out for middle-class families, 47 percent of registered voters polled said Warren and 43 percent said Brown.

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Material provided by UMass-Lowell was used in this report.

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