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November 27, 2012

UPDATE: Powerball jackpot now up to $500M

CHICAGO (AP) — Eight months after a trio of ticket buyers split a $656 million Mega Millions jackpot to set a world lottery record, Powerball is offering up a prize that would be the second highest.

The $500 million jackpot, the largest in Powerball's history, represents a potential life-changing fortune. But before shelling out $2 for a ticket, here are some things to consider:

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A GOOD BET: SOMEONE WILL WIN

It's the gambler's mantra: Somebody's gotta win, so why not me?

The first part is true; somebody will win the Powerball jackpot.

Chuck Strutt, executive director of Multi-State Lottery Association, predicts there's about a 60 percent chance it'll happen Wednesday — maybe better if there's a flurry of last-minute ticket purchasers picking unique numbers.

The jackpot already has defied long odds by rolling over 16 consecutive times without anyone hitting the big prize, which now stands at $500 million ($327 million cash value). Strutt puts the odds at around 5 percent there would be no winner in the entire run through Wednesday.

As the drought increases, so too will the chances of it ending on the next draw, because ticket sales spike with a growing jackpot.

Someone will win. Eventually.

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A BAD BET: IT'LL BE YOU

It's true to say that you have a better chance of being struck by lightning than winning the Powerball. But that woefully understates the danger of lightning.

Tim Norfolk, a University of Akron mathematics professor who teaches a course on gambling, puts the odds of a lightning strike in a person's lifetime at 1 in 5,000. The odds of winning the Powerball jackpot: 1 in 175 million.

While weather is the go-to analogy for such astronomical odds, Norfolk suggests there are better ones.

For example, you'd have a slightly better chance of randomly picking the name of one specific female in the United States: 1 in 157 million, according to the latest census.

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