Republican Scott Brown's successful campaign for what was thought to be one of the safest Democratic seats in the country has energized voters, potential candidates and watchers of politics.
But will that enthusiasm translate into Republican gains in other races in Massachusetts this November?
Our Web site and Sound Off column are full of speculation about which entrenched incumbent will be the next to fall to the red tide sweeping the state. Will it be Congressmen John Tierney or Niki Tsongas? Will any Democratic state legislators fall to Republican challengers?
Not only are Republican incumbents in the Legislature thinking about challenging Democrats in an effort to move up, but also many who had left politics or who have never been in politics are stepping in.
Former state treasurer Joe Malone is considering challenging Congressman William Delahunt, whose south-of-Boston district broke heavily for Brown.
In this region, GOP congressional hopeful Bill Hudak is running against incumbent John Tierney in the 6th District. Sam Meas of Haverhill, a Cambodian native and investment analyst, is one of two Republicans running to unseat Democratic 5th District Congresswoman Niki Tsongas, D-Lowell.
Andover accountant Jamison Tomasek is hoping to unseat state Sen. Susan Tucker, D-Andover, who was unopposed in the last two elections.
Republicans have unexpectedly beaten Democrats in three races since November — the gubernatorial contests in New Jersey and Virginia and now the senatorial race in Massachusetts.
Does Scott Brown's victory provide a template for other Republicans to start turning Massachusetts to red, or at least purple?
"There's no question. Clearly the Republicans are energized," said Andover's Sen. Tucker. "I expect there to be 10 times more candidates than in previous years. I think the energy is healthy. The political energy is a good thing for Massachusetts."
Races for Congress
Energy is one thing. But incumbents still enjoy tremendous advantages in time, organization and money.
Consider the races for federal offices. The Republican Party in Massachusetts has been down for so long it lacks the pool of statewide politicians who might make credible runs for national office.
With Scott Brown's election to the U.S. Senate and Richard Tisei's run for lieutenant governor, just three Republican state senators remain who might conceivably launch a run for federal office.
And one of those, state Sen. Bruce Tarr of Gloucester, says he isn't going anywhere.
Think of politics in baseball terms. When the Red Sox need another pitcher mid-season, they look to the top prospects on their farm team to see who's ready for the big league. Well, the Republicans in Massachusetts don't have much of a farm team. With just 16 Republicans among 160 members in the House and five of 40 senators, there isn't a lot of experienced talent to turn to.
"They traditionally have not been good at the pipeline issue," said Tucker, who is facing her first challenger since she beat little-known Republican Deborah Jones in a landslide in 2004. "Mitt Romney was particularly bad in that regard. He did not cultivate that pipeline."
That limits the field of potential challengers to newcomers, who may lack the organizational and fund-raising skills needed to win.
And there isn't much time left to gain that experience. Candidates must register by June 1 to be eligible for the state primary.
It's going to be difficult for Republicans," said state Sen. Steven Baddour, D-Methuen. "It's going to be difficult because there's not much time left."
Money is the lifeblood of politics. Money buys the advertisements that allow candidates to get their message out to a wide audience. Incumbents have war chests overflowing with cash. Challengers are lucky to have two dimes to rub together.
Take the race for the 5th Congressional District. Incumbent Democrat Niki Tsongas raised $578,080 in 2009. Data filed with the Federal Election Commission show she ended the third quarter with $138,000 cash on hand.
One of her announced opponents, Sam Meas of Haverhill, raised $26,496 through September 2009, although just $4,296 of that was from individual contributions. Meas (pronounced Meez) ended the quarter with about $15,000 cash on hand.
The fund-raising challenge doesn't deter Meas, a Cambodian-American who was born during his homeland's Khmer Rouge nightmare in the 1970s. He made his way out of Cambodia in 1983 and, with the help of Catholic Charities, came to the United States, where he was adopted by a Virginia family in 1992. Meas pursued his college education and is now a successful investment analyst with State Street Global Advisors.
"I am not deterred at all," said Meas, who faces competition for the GOP nomination from Jon Golnik of Carlisle. "Money doesn't always win the election."
More important than money is the shift in momentum generated by the Brown victory, he believes.
Meas noted that the communities of the 5th District went for Brown by about 70 percent to 30 percent.
"I think it really has changed the momentum," Meas said. "The momentum is with the challenger. The sentiment of change has really put the incumbent on watch."
Tsongas has noted that shift in momentum and said she is not surprised.
"We've had change but not enough change," the Lowell Democrat said. "People are worried and frustrated and angry about the economy. They're worried about their jobs. We've heard the message loud and clear that we need to focus like a laser on jobs."
Tsongas said the Brown victory won't change her approach to the re-election campaign. She said she'll focus on reaching out to voters, just as she has done throughout her term in office.
"I never take anything for granted," Tsongas said. "You have to work for every vote."
Beacon Hill races
The local races present a more achievable goal for inexperienced candidates.
Jennifer Nassour, chairman of the Massachusetts Republican Party, said this week that there are several potential candidates for seats in the Merrimack Valley. She would not reveal their names since they have not formally announced.
But she dismissed concerns that GOP candidates without experience can't knock off incumbents.
"If you think about the incumbents, a lot of them didn't come from anywhere," she said. "You just need somebody with a good network who is hungry to do the work."
And she said she thinks many Democrats will be vulnerable in November. "A lot of them voted for Sal DiMasi (for House speaker, shortly before he was indicted). A lot of them voted to increase the sales tax by 25 percent," she said. "People are hurting from taxes and out-of-control spending, and when they look for who is hurting them, 90 percent of them are Democrats."
But Republicans must guard against an excess of enthusiasm, some observers said. The last thing the party needs is a repeat of the Romney-led debacle in 2004. The popular Republican governor backed GOP candidates for 110 legislative seats. All 110 candidates lost.
"Romney decided to run someone against everyone. They ended up losing seats because they didn't target the ones they could win," Baddour said.
One hopeful candidate this year is Jamison Tomasek of Andover, director of internal audit for Courier Corp. in Chelmsford. Tomasek seeks to replace Tucker as state senator in the 2nd Essex and Middlesex District.
Tomasek began working on his campaign last summer when he discerned a general discontent among voters over the economy and new state taxes.
Tomasek thinks the Brown election was a game-changer for Republicans, noting the electricity that ran through the crowds at Brown rallies.
"Once people thought, We can win this, then it all changed," he said. "There is excitement among the electorate."
Tucker, for her part, thinks she is an unlikely target for the wrath of voters. Tucker notes her opposition to the increase in the state sales tax, her fight against auto insurance fraud and her opposition to the Legislature's changing of the rules on senatorial appointments that, ironically, made the election of Scott Brown possible.
Tucker believes that the voters' anger is directed at Washington, where they see Democratic politicians engaging in the same insider politics they once blamed on Republicans.
"People want transparency and accountability," Tucker said. "They're angry at anything that smacks of backroom deals."
