Despite the importance of Tuesday's U.S. Senate primary election, local city and town clerks expect only a small percentage of voters to show up.
Rafael Tejeda, Lawrence's bilingual elections coordinator, predicts a turnout of between 10 and 15 percent in his city.
"I am not optimistic about the voters' participation, and I want to be wrong," he said.
In Haverhill, City Clerk Peggy Toomey is expecting 16 percent, while Methuen City Clerk Christine Touma-Conway estimated that "maybe" 25 percent of the Methuen electorate will vote.
North Andover Town Clerk Joyce Bradshaw said she is expecting "maybe 20 percent, 25 percent," and Andover Town Clerk Randy Hanson said her town could end up seeing 5,000 to 6,000 of its approximately 22,000 registered voters, which would be 23 to 27 percent.
The clerks based their predictions on a low number of absentee ballots requested in advance of the election.
Tomorrow at noon is the deadline to apply for an absentee ballot. The polls are open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. statewide on Tuesday.
Voters will narrow the field of six candidates hoping to fill the seat vacated by the late Sen. Edward Kennedy — four Democrats and two Republicans — to one Democrat and one Republican. The two nominees will face off Jan. 19, and the winner of that election will be the state's next senator.
But the real race is on Tuesday, not in January, according to Richard Padova, a Northern Essex Community College professor of history, geography, government and politics.
"Whoever wins the Democratic primary... will be the next U.S. Senator from Massachusetts," he said. "You could bet the farm on that."
Kennedy, nicknamed the "liberal lion," was one of the most famous Democrats in American history. Padova said it's "flat out impossible" for a Republican to win the seat.
The Democratic contenders include Attorney General Martha Coakley, U.S. Congressman Michael Capuano, venture capitalist and Boston Celtics co-owner Stephen Pagliuca, and City Year founder Alan Khazei. The GOP candidates are state Sen. Scott Brown and Jack E. Robinson.
Padova and Merrimack College political science professor Mary McHugh both agreed that Coakley and Brown are the front-runners for their respective parties.
"I'd say it's hers to win right now," Padova said of Coakley.
McHugh said Brown does have a slight chance of winning the final election, but it will be an uphill battle.
"It will be a Hail Mary pass," she said.
McHugh said Brown would have to attract unenrolled voters, because if only "true Democrats" and "true Republicans" show up on Jan. 19, he'll lose because he'll be outnumbered by Democrats.
He won't have much time to accomplish this feat between Tuesday and the final election — a time period that includes the holidays.
"He'd have to swing the moderates," McHugh said. "But that's how every Republican has won in Massachusetts. He has to follow the playbook of (Bill) Weld and (Paul) Cellucci and (Mitt) Romney. Following that playbook is great, but you're doing it in a two-minute drive."
Jennifer Nassour, chairman of the Massachusetts Republican Party, argued that her party can win the Senate seat, saying the Democrats are talking about raising taxes. She also took note of the corruption that has plagued the Democrat-controlled state Legislature over the past year.
"This seat does not belong to any one party," she said.
Coakley would be the first female U.S. Senator to represent the state, according to Padova and McHugh.
This is also the first time in a quarter century that voters will select a new person to be one of the state's two senators, and it comes during a time of war, economic crisis and potentially a massive overhaul of the nation's health care system.
Still, the public doesn't seem interested, Padova said.
"Why? I'm not too sure. If I had to guess, I'd have to say people just aren't used to voting in December and January," he said. "Some people, I guess, feel that Kennedy can never be replaced. The selection, in their minds — none of the six candidates seem worthy of replacing Kennedy."
Plus, the holiday season is here and people have other things on their minds, Padova said.
Whoever does win Kennedy's Senate seat will have some awfully big shoes to fill.
"Massachusetts has been accustomed to receiving a lot of federal dollars because of the clout that we have had," Padova said. "This creates an opportunity for one of those four Democrats and two Republicans to carry on that legacy."
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