Massachusetts is two days away from either stunning the country with one of the biggest upsets in political history or electing the presumed Democratic successor to the late Edward Kennedy's long-held seat in the U.S. Senate.
The sudden ascent of Republican state Sen. Scott Brown in the polls has thrust the Senate race into the national spotlight due to its potential impact on the national health care legislation pending in Congress and for what a Republican victory in such an overwhelmingly liberal state could portend for Congressional Democrats at the start of a midterm election year.
The latest Rasmussen Poll painted the race as a virtual dead heat, with the Democratic nominee, Attorney General Martha Coakley, leading Brown 49 to 47 percent. Independent Joe Kennedy, no relation to the late senator, polled at 3 percent, with 2 percent undecided. A Suffolk University survey released Thursday showed Brown 4 points ahead of Coakley, leading 50 percent to 46 percent, with Kennedy at 3 percent and only 1 percent undecided.
It was the first major poll to show Brown in the lead, and represents a stunning turnaround from just a week ago, when Coakley enjoyed a double-digit lead in some polls.
"It would be the biggest upset ever in Massachusetts if Brown wins," said Ronny Ford, a local political commentator, former talk radio personality and lifelong Democrat from Methuen. "I think (Coakley) took this guy for granted, and now she's got a big problem."
The suddenly tight race has energized local Republicans and has local clerks predicting a heavier-than-expected turnout in Tuesday's special election.
The Bay State has not elected a Republican to the Senate since 1972. Kennedy held his seat for almost 47 years until his death in August.
Local and national political pundits see the Massachusetts race and the Republican nominee's surge as an indication of what could be in store for Democrats later this year. It is also being viewed in the context of the ongoing debate over the Democratic Party's health care legislation and the liberal policies of President Barack Obama.
Paul Kirk Jr., who is filling the seat temporarily, has said he will support the health care bill when it comes for a final vote in the Senate in a couple weeks. Coakley also backs the bill.
Fearing the impact of a Brown victory on a range of liberal priorities, Democrats from across the country are getting involved in the race.
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is reportedly spending more than half a million dollars in the final days of the campaign, and labor unions backing Coakley have poured about the same amount into the race. Sen. John Kerry and former President Bill Clinton campaigned in the state last week, and Obama is expected to be in Massachusetts today to stump with Coakley at Northeastern University.
During a campaign stop yesterday at Maria's Family Restaurant in Haverhill, Coakley attributed the closeness of the race to the short timespan candidates had to campaign.
"People really didn't start focusing on this race, I'd say, until well after Christmas and the new year," she said. "And now, in that period of time, we've got a candidate who has tapped into some anger. People feel mad that nothing's happened. And he's been able to get some traction with what I believe are misrepresentations about his record and mine."
Coakley said she has no doubt the race will go down to the wire, with the winner being the person who does a better job of getting out the vote.
"The polls are all over the place," she said. "I think we'll win, but it's hard to know what the margin will be."
Brown, meanwhile, kicked off a three-day bus tour of the state yesterday with former Massachusetts Gov. William Weld, making stops in Quincy, Plymouth, Hyannis and Middleboro. He had spent the previous day campaigning with former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani.
On the fundraising front, Brown has kept pace with Coakley, raising more than $1 million in a single day last week when conservatives from around the nation poured money into his campaign.
Unprecedented interest in Massachusetts race
City clerks in the Merrimack Valley said they have been besieged in recent days by voters asking for absentee ballots.
"Until recently, I think most people assumed the Democratic candidate would win easily because it's Ted Kennedy's seat," Methuen City Clerk Christine Touma-Conway said. "But now that it looks like the Republican is getting close, they're thinking they want to vote."
Touma-Conway said last week was the busiest stretch she's seen for people coming in for absentee ballots, a common gauge that clerks use to predict voter turnout.
"The last three or four days, we've had a huge surge in absentee ballots," Touma-Conway said Wednesday. "Part of it is fear that it may snow, although there are no forecasts for that. ... Until recently, I was expecting a low turnout, but now I don't think that's going to be the case. I wouldn't be surprised if we hit 20 percent, which would be very high for a special election, especially one in the middle of January."
Haverhill City Clerk Peggy Toomey said her office has also seen a surge in requests for absentee ballots.
"What's unusual is to get so many requests for absentee ballots so close to the election," said Toomey, who also predicted voter turnout in Haverhill could reach 20 percent.
A Lawrence election official predicted a 15 percent turnout in the heavily Democratic city.
Jack Roy, chairman of the Haverhill Republican City Committee, said he's never seen local Republicans so excited about a non-presidential election.
"We had 100 Brown signs a week ago, and they're all gone and we can't get more," Roy said Wednesday. "I had three calls just this morning from people looking for signs and asking to help in any way they can. The momentum Brown has right now is astounding and like nothing I've seen before."
Roy and other Haverhill Republicans held a Brown visibility and sign-holding event yesterday morning at White's Corner on Route 125 at the eastern entrance to downtown.
"This will be the shot heard around the county if Brown wins," Roy said. "We might look back at (this election) in a few years as the start of the next Conservative Revolution."
William Cox, chairman of Haverhill's Democratic City Committee, downplayed the recent polls and talk of GOP momentum. He said he expects Coakley to carry Haverhill by a wide margin.
"I don't believe Massachusetts voters are going to let someone dismantle what Ted Kennedy spent his life putting together," he said.
Cox said he believes all of the attention being given to the race will actually benefit Coakley more than Brown.
"It's unusual to have an election in the middle of January, and I think most people forgot about it until the media started stirring it up," he said. "But I think that's going to end up being good for Coakley and Democrats because there's so many more of us."
Cox insisted that Democrats are just as "charged up" about Coakley as Republicans are about Brown.
"We're going to be working hard right up until Tuesday to make sure people vote," he said. "We'll be working the phones and talking to people while (the Republicans) are out holding signs."
Bryan Sweet, chairman of the Methuen Democratic City Committee, also predicts a Democratic victory.
"Massachusetts is one of the bluest states in the country," he said. "If Coakley loses, it would be overly shocking. We're going to do whatever we have to do to make sure that doesn't happen."
Health care reform could hinge on Tuesday's election
Sweet said he does not believe Coakley's support of the Democratic health care bill is as damaging to her campaign as Republicans have made it out to be.
"Martha Coakley is the one who is going to help deliver health care to 30 million Americans that don't have it right now," he said. "I believe most Americans want health care reform."
Brown made it clear in the final debate last week that a vote for him is a vote to stop the massive health care overhaul being pushed by Democrats. Supporters of the health care bill stress that it was a top priority for Senator Kennedy throughout his career, and that Massachusetts should elect someone to fulfill that mission. Vicki Kennedy, the late senator's widow, has endorsed Coakley.
A Coakley loss would also deprive senate Democrats of their 60-vote supermajority and give Republicans the ability to stall legislation by filibustering. If Brown were to pull off the upset, however, Democrats have signaled they will try to delay his seating in the Senate until the health care bill is passed.
Former Lawrence Mayor Michael Sullivan, a Republican, called Brown "the vote that could stop the health care bill no one wants.
"People are scared their taxes are going to go up if this health care bill passes," he said. "This election is their chance to do more than complain about it."
Even taking into account Coakley's stop in Haverhill yesterday, neither she nor Brown spent much time campaigning in the Merrimack Valley.
Brown attended a fundraiser in Haverhill and toured the city's downtown. He also met with The Eagle-Tribune's editorial board prior to the December primary election.
In addition to yesterday's visit, Coakley toured the Malden Mills manufacturing plant in Lawrence before the primary and visited Haverhill with state Sen. Steven Baddour, who is considering a run for attorney general should Coakley win Tuesday. She set up tentative meetings with The Eagle-Tribune's editorial board, but never wound up visiting the paper. She also planned to come to Lawrence earlier this month to swear in new Mayor William Lantigua, but canceled at the last minute, citing a campaign conflict.
— Staff Writer Mark E. Vogler contributed to this story.
