Sometime today, it would be good to find out what Hurricane Earl's plans are for Friday.
Meteorologists and emergency management experts are now saying that Earl's final path — whether it stays 100 to 200 miles out to sea before heading to Canada or takes a more direct line at New England — will be determined with much more clarity by day's end. Should Earl visit, it would likely be a 12-hour storm starting Friday afternoon, officials said.
"The potential exists for the storm to go farther out to sea or directly up and over New England," said Matt Noyes, a meteorologist with New England Cable News Network and a resident of Haverhill.
Earl is taking the same path of some of the biggest hurricanes ever to hit New England.
"He's behaved according to historic storms, including the Great Hurricane of 1944 and Hurricane Edna in 1954," Noyes said. "It's a path that is favorable for a New England strike."
However, a cold front coming out of Canada has strong potential to push the hurricane farther out to sea, which would keep New England, and the Merrimack Valley and Southern New Hampshire in particular, out of harm's way.
The big question, said Noyes, is what the cold front will do.
"That front, and the speed of the front, will become more evident in the next 24 hours," he said. "If the front slows down, that will keep the window open for Earl to shoot more northward. It's a conundrum."
While he's not predicting a direct hit on New England, Noyes said it remains a possibility that people should be aware of.
As such, area residents and business owners should monitor the storm's movement and start preparing as soon as possible.
"Why wait until the last minute?" asked Salem, N.H., fire Chief Kevin Breen, who also is the town's emergency management director. "If you wait, you end up at the grocery store and can't find any bottled water."
He added: "It's always essential for homeowners to maintain a state of preparedness."
Thousands of Salem, N.H., residential and business customers lost power earlier this week when two geese flew into power lines in Lawrence.
"You don't have to wait for a hurricane to have a problem," Breen said, advising everyone to get a copy of the document "Are You Ready," published by the Federal Emergency Management Agency. It is available on the agency's website and contains information about emergency preparedness.
"It's great guidance for residents to determine whether they are in a good position to withstand a natural or man-made event," he said. "It's good practice to be ready. Being ready is the responsibility of everyone."
In short, readiness means having three days' supply of food, water and clothing in your home, according to Jeff Coco, North Andover's emergency management director.
He recommended everyone have a disaster kit, complete with any necessary medications, important paperwork, a point of contact with family, a safe meeting point, and an out-of-state contact that all family members can call if they lose each other and can't contact anyone locally.
He said people shouldn't forget pets, either — and be sure to have supplies necessary for their health and well-being.
Being up-to-date
Coco, along with other area emergency management officials, including Methuen police Officer John Santoro, are getting twice-daily updates from the Massachusetts Emergency Management Agency, or MEMA.
During yesterday's afternoon briefing, Coco said he was told that if the hurricane travels west, it could bring up to 8 inches of rain to the Merrimack Valley, which would lead to the Shawsheen River overflowing Sunday. If it stays on its current course, it will mean just 2 to 4 inches of rain and minimal flooding with wind gusts up to 40 mph.
Currently, Earl is a Category 3 storm, carrying winds up to 130 mph, capable of causing extensive damage to buildings and trees and flooding low-lying coastal roads, according to FEMA.
Noyes, and several emergency management experts from the area, said that most younger people in the Merrimack Valley don't really know what it's like to live through a full-fledged hurricane, unless they were here in 1954 for the two-pronged whammy — Carol followed by Edna.
Carol is considered the last major hurricane to hit this part of New England, having caused nearly a half-billion dollars in damage and taking the lives of 68 people.
The Aug. 31 hurricane was followed a few weeks later by Edna, which caused another $50 million in damage and took 29 lives.
Since then, Southern New Hampshire and the Merrimack Valley have been spared the brunt of more recent storms, such as Bob in 1991 and Gloria in 1985.
Those storms struck the South Shore and Southern New England more severely.
While Earl might not be Carol or Edna, Noyes said, "history has dictated that New England has seen major storms."
For that reason, people should always be ready. "Complacency is foolhardy," he said.
Sampling of New England hurricanes through history
The Great Colonial Hurricane of 1635
Aug. 25, 1635: Category 3, 115 mph winds; Colonial villages destroyed; Native Americans killed; trees toppled.
The Great New England Hurricane of 1938
Sept. 21, 1938: Sept. 21, 1938: Category 5, gusts to 183 mph killed about 600 people in New England, most of them in Rhode Island. Approximately 4,500 homes, farms and cottages and 6,000 fishing vessels destroyed throughout the New England coast.
Hurricane Carol
Aug. 31, 1954: Category 2 storm, 100 mph winds gusting up to 135 mph; killed 68; more than $461 million in damage; destroyed 4,000 homes, 3,500 cars, and more than 3,000 boats.
Hurricane Bob
Aug. 19, 1991: Category 2 storm, 125 mph winds; 7 inches of rain; total damage in Massachusetts, $680 million.
Hurricane preparedness
Before a hurricane:
Secure your property — permanent storm shutters work best for windows; second-best is 5/8-inch marine plywood cut to fit and ready to install. Tape does NOT prevent windows from breaking. Place flower pots, geraniums, planter boxes inside.
Install straps on the roof to prevent it from blowing away.
Trim all trees and shrubs around the house.
Clear clogged gutters
Secure your boat
Make sure to have three days' supply of food, water and clothing/bedding.
Get extra batteries for flashlights or battery-powered lights.
A battery-operated radio and clock
Canned foods and a manual can opener
A list of important phone numbers and a car charger for cell phones if applicable
A first-aid kit.
