EagleTribune.com, North Andover, MA


November 4, 2012

Column: A look at finer details shows Tuesday could be a good day for Obama


Taxes and prices are going up next year regardless of who wins. The expiration of payroll tax cuts and drought-related cost increases in field crops, among other things, will occur on the next president’s watch, whether it is Obama or Romney.

According to recent NBC/Wall Street Journal and Marist College polls, Obama has a comfortable lead in Wisconsin — despite the presence of homestater Paul Ryan on the GOP ticket. Not looking good if a vice-presidential candidate cannot deliver his home state.

According to recent polling data from organizations such as Gallup, Ipsos and Rasmussen, although their methodologies are different they all point to the same conclusion: Despite some slight gains for Romney nationally, most of the individual battleground state polls continue to show Obama with small to comfortable leads. And the battleground states are where this election will be won.

Romney’s competitors from the GOP primaries and caucuses have been conspicuously absent from the general election campaign, and their silence speaks volumes about their enthusiasm for Romney. Allowing Romney to be defeated clears the way for Rick Santorum, in particular, to begin the process of what is likely to be a 2016 re-try.

Speaking of enthusiasm, Ann Romney did not have much of it recently when she publicly stated that if her husband loses, he will not try again in 2016. Sounds like a tacit write-off of Nov. 6.

When all is said and done, Obama will win re-election. He should receive around 51 percent of the popular vote, and around 300 electoral votes, possibly more (270 needed to win).

Richard Padova teaches government and politics at Northern Essex Community College and has worked on eight presidential campaigns — Democratic and Republican.

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