By Terry Date
tdate@eagletribune.com
September 22, 2008 12:47 pm 11So it's no surprise that volunteers from both campaigns are streaming across the Massachusetts border in support of their candidates. They know the Bay State is already expected to fall in Obama's column and their efforts are better spent in New Hampshire, a so-called swing, or battleground state "It's a must-have win for McCain, and I'm sure both campaigns look at it that way," said Michael Sweeney, a McCain supporter from Andover. Once or twice a week, the 43-year-old travels to the McCain office in Nashua, N.H., and calls prospective voters, targeting Independents, identifying who they support and explaining McCain's positions on issues. "I think it is the most relevant way I can help the McCain campaign given where I live," he said. Busloads of Obama supporters have ridden into New Hampshire from Rhode Island and Massachusetts to rally for their candidate and knock on doors to solicit votes. John Zipeto, 61, a Realtor from Andover, spends two to three hours a day seeking volunteers from Massachusetts to travel to New Hampshire and work for Obama. Zipeto recognizes that a razor-thin margin could decide who wins here and that many New Hampshire voters don't decide how to vote until the last week of the election. "The mantra is 'Every vote counts,'" he said. The campaigns and their volunteers are vying for the support of people like George and Lorraine Beaudoin, undecided voters from Hampstead, N.H., whose support has swung back and forth between the candidates. "I have gone either way," said Beaudoin, eating breakfast Thursday at MaryAnn's Diner in Derry. The retired couple, married 51 years, are Democrats who have lived in the state since 2000, moving north after decades in Lawrence and Methuen, George said the most important issue to him is the economy. He said he is an engaged voter who watched all of both parties' national conventions and will watch the upcoming presidential and vice presidential debates. Kagie Ramon of East Derry, sitting at the counter at the diner, is another New Hampshire swing voter. So far, she is unswayed by either candidate. "I'm not sure of McCain because of his age," she said. "And Obama's lack of experience makes me nervous." Close race expected The closeness of the presidential race in New Hampshire has shown up in polls conducted by University of New Hampshire Survey Center Director Andy Smith. The most recent poll, released July 21, gave Obama a slim advantage, 46 to 43 percent, but a quarter of the voters surveyed said they had yet to decide upon whom to vote for. Smith was polling again this week and will release the results tomorrow. Before he started the most recent polling, he said he expected the results to remain very close. New Hampshire was decided by thin margins in the past two presidential elections. John Kerry won by a narrow majority in 2004, and George W. Bush by only 7,000 votes in 2000. Had Gore won the Granite State in 2000, he would have been president, Smith said. Mark Lenzi, McCain's communications director for New Hampshire, fully expects a nail-biter in New Hampshire this time around as well — maybe even as close as 2000. The difference could be in the low thousands, he said. Sandra Abrevaya, Obama's communications director for New Hampshire, said the Obama campaign clearly sees New Hampshire as a battleground state. She called the campaign's investment in the state "unparalleled," in terms of people and money. The changing face of NH A look at the affiliation of the state's registered voters partially explains why the vote could be close here. As of Aug. 18, there were 863,542 registered voters, according to the N.H. Secretary of State's Office. There were 263,217 registered Democrats, 268,108 registered Republicans, and 332,217 registered Independents. UNH political science professor Dante Scala said the GOP used to hold a 2 to 1 advantage over Democrats in the number of registered voters. The new alignment leaves the Republican Party little margin for error. But Obama must also deliver in the areas he is expected to deliver. To illustrate his point, Scala placed a map of New Hampshire on his desk and drew a line, square, circle and dots, representing candidate strongholds and battlegrounds. Obama has strong support in the more sparsely populated 2nd Congressional District, the western part of the state and much of the North Country. McCain is strongest in a densely populated square that starts west of Manchester, then moves east along 101 to Epping, then south to Windham, then west along the Massachusetts line, including Merrimack. This section includes many former Massachusetts residents with a more conservative bent. The circle covers the Seacoast, home to many younger, more liberal Democrats, strong Obama supporters. It is also home to moderate Republicans. Scala pressed pen points to the cities of Manchester, Berlin, Claremont, Somersworth and Rochester, working class communities that are home to many traditional, older Democrats. Those cities will be a test for Obama in the election, and he will need to fare better there than he did in the New Hampshire primary, he said. GOP vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin may help McCain among hockey moms in those towns, unless Obama can reach out to them. "Barack Obama has to convince them that he is the one who is going to help them economically," Scala said. Debates could be key For both men and women, the economy appears to be the most important issue, especially given the events of past week, which saw the stock market tumble following the news that Lehman Brothers had filed for bankruptcy. "Right now I think it is the economy, the economy, the economy," Scala said. But it's not the only issue on voters' minds. Two local backers of the candidates cite foreign affairs as the reason for their support. Londonderry Democrat Ola Lessard, 40, a small business owner, said Obama understands the importance of worldwide diplomacy. She thinks it will be critical in the coming years. Salem Republican Peter Rayno, 47, a banker, said he trusts McCain's judgement. He thinks McCain can be relied on as commander in chief in a dangerous world. Both Lessard and Rayno have seen their candidates in person during primary visits. Rayno said the election could be a toss-up, and the debate results could make the difference in many swing states. Scala said New Hampshire could be the difference maker in the election. "Those four electoral votes could be as important as they were in 2000," he said. And all four electoral votes go to the winner, whether the margin of victory is two votes or 20,000.
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