Sun, Nov 08 2009

Published: October 07, 2008 08:47 am    PrintThis  

Investors urged to diversify, look for bargains despite downturn

By Bill Kirk
bkirk@eagletribune.com

Now is not the time to panic.

That's the advice from some local and national financial experts after yesterday's stock plunge both on Wall Street and overseas.

Just a few days after the federal government pledged to pump $700 billion in taxpayers' money into the ailing economy, major stocks fell by near-record numbers, leading some of those same financial experts to warn that the worst may still be ahead.

The Dow Jones index, a list of 30 of the largest and most widely held companies in the country, fell below 10,000 for the first time in four years, ending at 9,955. The index is an adjusted average of the stock prices of those companies, and is often viewed as a barometer of how the economy is doing now and how it is expected to perform in the future.

Trisha Michado, an assistant professor of economics at Northern Essex Community College, said the market plunged — at one point by as much as 800 — because of uncertainty about whether the federal bailout will work, lack of confidence in the health of Wall Street, and the spillover effect from what happened in Europe, where markets also fell yesterday.

"We are in for a change of lifestyle," Michado predicted. "You're going to see layoffs."

Susan Friedrich, a financial adviser with Edward Jones in Derry, said the recent turmoil is causing people a lot of concern, "more so for people in the drawdown (retirement) than those in accumulation."

Leeland Jones, a financial adviser with Edward Jones in Methuen agreed that things are dicier for those close to retirement.

"You want to make sure someone (nearing retirement) doesn't have an aggressive portfolio," he said. But, he added, for those looking to buy stock in good companies, good deals are out there.

"GE is at its lowest point in 11 years," he said. "They do a lot internationally, they're building electrical systems in India and other emerging nations. That's a good value."

He said he's taking a long view, so that for stocks his clients purchase now, they can look back on and say they "added money to the market at the right time. Over the next couple of months, that's the message I'm getting out there."

The steep decline indicates that investors are becoming more convinced that the country is leading a prolonged economic crisis that is shifting to other nations.

"The market view is shifting from looking just at the misery of the financial sector to the global economy," said Georges Ugeux, chairman and chief executive of New York-based Galileo Global Advisors. "There are enough indications that two things are happening: The crisis is spreading to other sectors, and that it is becoming global."

Ugeux said he believes yesterday's rout had little to do with any short-term problems facing the market, such as paralyzed credit markets or ailing financial companies. He said he believes that, regardless of the late-day rebound in stocks, "the reaction is clearly giving a downtrend and that there is a lack of confidence of investors into the future growth of the U.S. and the world economy."

But as bad as it is, or it's going to get, now is not the time to dump your stocks, as Jim Cramer, a well-known TV financial personality, said on the morning news yesterday.

"The worst thing you can do is panic out of things," said Bill Novelline, founder of Abbot Financial Management of North Andover. "It only comes back and bites you later on."

He said he has worked with his clients to sell over-valued stocks, take the profits, and put the money into municipal bonds or other cash instruments like Treasury bills.

"As far as stocks are concerned, we're very selective," he said, noting that he advises clients to buy companies that pay increasing dividends, like utilities.

"We believe in diversification," he said, adding that as his clients put more of their money into bonds and treasuries, they will be ready when the market bounces back.

Howard Redgate, chairman and founder of Andover Equity Associates, agreed.

"A year ago August, we moved our clients into cash and defensive securities," he said, "so we are relatively insulated from these declines and have a lot of resources to buy companies at these prices. We are looking with great anticipation" for the bottom of the market.

Because once the bottom is reached, then it's time to go shopping.

However, he said he's not sure if the market has reached bottom yet.

"This could be the bottom," he said. "The market is looking for a bottom."

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