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Merrimack Valley
Low voter turnout predicted for primary
Published: September 3, 2007
The weather is expected to be beautiful and public opinion surveys show a tight race, but election officials say they expect a slow day at the polls tomorrow.
Andover, Haverhill, Lawrence and Methuen expect only 10 percent to 15 percent of registered voters to show up and cast ballots in the 5th Congressional District primary.
They blame it on the long holiday weekend.
"We could all be dead wrong," Methuen City Clerk Christine Touma-Conway said. "If they really cared about high turnout, then how is the day after Labor Day good?"
Two Republicans and five Democrats are vying to replace Congressman Martin Meehan, who stepped down in July to become chancellor of the University of Massachusetts Lowell.
Here is what clerks expect for this part of the 5th District:
* In Lawrence, Raphael Tejada, the city's bilingual elections coordinator, estimated that between 10 percent and 15 percent of the city's 35,000 registered voters will cast ballots tomorrow.
* In Andover, Town Clerk Randy Hanson said this election would be hard to call. School isn't back in session until Thursday, meaning most families will still be vacationing. But Andover's 19,870 registered voters could make a big showing for their hometown candidate - state Rep. Barry Finegold.
* In Methuen, the city clerk estimates 10 percent of the city's 26,000 registered voters will show up.
* In Haverhill, City Clerk Peggy Toomey expects no more than 20 percent of the city's 37,600 voters to come out and vote. That compares with about 50 percent in the Nov. 7 gubernatorial election.
Officials are basing these low estimates on the number of people asking for absentee ballots or registering to vote - a prime indicator of voter turnout.
Tejada has received only 150 requests for absentee ballots from Lawrence voters - much less than the 600 requests for last year's gubernatorial primary.
Haverhill has seen 200 requests, while 124 Methuen voters have asked for absentee ballots. Touma-Conway said Methuen's figure is misleading because 40 to 50 are for permanently disabled voters.
"Eight absentee ballots the week before the election is an indication that turnout is going to be pretty low," Toomey said.
Andover, Haverhill, Lawrence and Methuen expect only 10 percent to 15 percent of registered voters to show up and cast ballots in the 5th Congressional District primary.
They blame it on the long holiday weekend.
"We could all be dead wrong," Methuen City Clerk Christine Touma-Conway said. "If they really cared about high turnout, then how is the day after Labor Day good?"
Two Republicans and five Democrats are vying to replace Congressman Martin Meehan, who stepped down in July to become chancellor of the University of Massachusetts Lowell.
Here is what clerks expect for this part of the 5th District:
* In Lawrence, Raphael Tejada, the city's bilingual elections coordinator, estimated that between 10 percent and 15 percent of the city's 35,000 registered voters will cast ballots tomorrow.
* In Andover, Town Clerk Randy Hanson said this election would be hard to call. School isn't back in session until Thursday, meaning most families will still be vacationing. But Andover's 19,870 registered voters could make a big showing for their hometown candidate - state Rep. Barry Finegold.
* In Methuen, the city clerk estimates 10 percent of the city's 26,000 registered voters will show up.
* In Haverhill, City Clerk Peggy Toomey expects no more than 20 percent of the city's 37,600 voters to come out and vote. That compares with about 50 percent in the Nov. 7 gubernatorial election.
Officials are basing these low estimates on the number of people asking for absentee ballots or registering to vote - a prime indicator of voter turnout.
Tejada has received only 150 requests for absentee ballots from Lawrence voters - much less than the 600 requests for last year's gubernatorial primary.
Haverhill has seen 200 requests, while 124 Methuen voters have asked for absentee ballots. Touma-Conway said Methuen's figure is misleading because 40 to 50 are for permanently disabled voters.
"Eight absentee ballots the week before the election is an indication that turnout is going to be pretty low," Toomey said.
State law required Gov. Deval Patrick to set the general election date within 145 days to 160 days after Meehan told him he would resign. The earliest primary date is Aug. 21, while the latest is Sept. 4.
Secretary of State William F. Galvin argued for the later date, saying that a summer election would not spark enough interest.
Low turnout, but high cost
While turnout is anticipated to be low, the cost of holding a special election is expected to be high. State lawmakers failed to include money in their fiscal 2008 budget to help defray the cost of the special election.
Meehan has rejected the idea of helping to pay for the election from his massive campaign war chest.
Lawrence City Clerk William Maloney pegs the primary cost at $110,000.
Although Lawrence is in the midst of a budget crisis, city officials last week assured the secretary of state - the state's chief election official - that the city would have the money to pay for the special election.
Touma-Conway said Methuen will have to shell out at least $52,000 for tomorrow's primary and the Oct. 16 general election. In Haverhill, the cost will also be about $52,000.
Toomey said Haverhill has taken steps to reduce the bite on the city's budget. City officials typically set up polls the day before an election. This year, however, that falls on Labor Day, which means poll workers would be paid time-and-a-half.
Instead, Haverhill officials worked late in the weeks leading up to the election to get ready, and planned on having polling places set up by the end of Friday.
A look at who is running for Congress
Democrats
Eileen Donoghue Lowell city councilor
Niki Tsongas Lowell college dean
Barry Finegold Andover state rep.
James Miceli Wilmington state rep.
James Eldridge Acton state rep.
Republicans
James Ogonowski Dracut hay farmer
Thomas Tierney Framingham actuary
* While Republican and Democratic voters have to take out ballots for their candidates, unenrolled voters can vote in either primary.
