If you're expecting exciting New Hampshire primary races on Tuesday, think again. You'll have to wait until November.
Most voters won't be rushing to the polls to cast their ballots this week, political experts say. Turnout is expected to be extremely low compared to the Nov. 4 general election, when Granite Staters will choose not only a new president, but also leaders in many statewide races.
"The conventional wisdom is it's going to be a low turnout because there aren't many hotly contested races on the ballot," Deputy Secretary of State David Scanlan said.
"As far as primaries go, it should be a fairly quiet affair," agreed Dante Scala, a political science professor at the University of New Hampshire.
He estimates only about 10 percent of the electorate will turn out to vote Tuesday.
The Republican congressional races are just about the only action in the primary. While Democratic congressional incumbents Carol Shea-Porter and Paul Hodes are unopposed in the primary, the Republican slate is full.
Republican Jeb Bradley of Wolfeboro is fighting to return to Washington to represent the 1st District in a four-way battle that pits the two-term former congressman — who lost the seat to Shea-Porter in 2006 — against former state Department of Health and Human Services Commissioner John Stephen of Manchester, Dave Jarvis of Hooksett and Geoff Michael of Merrimack.
In the 2nd District, five GOP candidates are competing for the nod to run against Hodes in November: Grant Bosse of Hillsborough, Bob Clegg of Hudson, Jennifer Horn of Nashua, Alfred L'Eplattenier of Rindge and Jim Steiner of Concord.
The more interesting races will happen in November. New Hampshire residents will be asked to choose a governor, U.S. senator and the two members of Congress, along with executive councilors and many local officials.
Those statewide races include the U.S. Senate showdown between former Democratic Gov. Jeanne Shaheen and Republican incumbent John Sununu.
Both candidates have opponents in Tuesday's primary, but they appear to pose little competition for the longtime political heavyweights.
Shaheen goes up against Raymond Stebbins of Nashua, perhaps best known as the winner of the state's Democratic vice presidential primary earlier this year. Sununu, a three-term congressman elected to the Senate over Shaheen in 2002, will face former state Rep. Tom Alciere of Hudson.
Most polls have Shaheen running ahead of Sununu in the November election.
A UNH Survey Center poll in July showed Shaheen with 46 percent of the vote and Sununu with 42 percent. But Survey Center director Andy Smith said with two months to go before the general election, it's still early to gauge who will emerge as the front-runner.
Most people really don't start to think of who will win in November until at least late September or early October, he said.
In the 1st District congressional primary, the UNH poll showed 27 percent favored Bradley, and 19 percent Stephen.
Smith, who also estimates a voter turnout of about 10 percent, said the general lack of interest in the races makes the outcome that much more difficult to predict. "With that low of a turnout, it's hard to say who will win," he said.
Although many casting ballots in Tuesday's primary will remember Bradley from his two terms in Congress, Smith said it will be interesting to see how he fares against Stephen, who led one of New Hampshire's largest state agencies.
Scala agrees it will be tight race.
"That's a tough call right now," he said. "That's a toss-up."
In the 2nd District, five relative unknowns are battling for the right to face Hodes in November.
The group is led by Clegg, a state senator, and Horn, a former radio show host and newspaper columnist. Their success will rely heavily on how well their campaigns are organized, Scala and Smith said. That includes their ability to appeal to voters through direct mail and door-to-door campaigning.
"You have candidates who are not well known and not well-funded," Smith said.
Other Democratic incumbents are expected to face little trouble in their re-election bids this year.
Although Gov. John Lynch faces Katy Forry of Jaffrey in the primary, she is expected to have little chance of winning.
"She's pretty much a protest candidate," Smith said, noting that Lynch should receive about 80 percent to 90 percent of the vote.
On the Republican side, Joseph Kenney of Wakefield is running uncontested and is not expected to make much of an impact in November.
An "evenly split electorate" is expected to turn out at the polls this fall, especially in November, Smith said, meaning more balanced races.
In 2006, both GOP congressional incumbents, including Bradley, were forced from their seats as Democrats also seized control of the Republican-dominated New Hampshire House for the first time in 84 years.
Democrats also grabbed control of the state Senate, giving the party control of both chambers for the first time since the 19th century.
"It was that the Republicans stayed home" that year, Smith said. "The Democrats turned out (to vote) and the Republicans didn't."
Figures from the secretary of state's office show there are 863,542 registered voters in New Hampshire — 268,108 Republicans, 263,217 Democrats and 332,217 who are undecided.
