EagleTribune.com, North Andover, MA

BOSTON - Republican Jim Ogonowski's six-point loss to Democrat Niki Tsongas in Tuesday's 5th Congressional District race was painful for his followers, yet inspiring to some area GOP faithfuls.

Although Ogonowski lost to Tsongas, he made a Democratic victory uncertain right down to the wire, despite being dramatically outspent and facing a candidate with enviable name recognition and backing from state and national Democrats.

Now, state Republicans are looking for signs Ogonowski's performance is the start of a GOP comeback in Massachusetts or a single exception to this state's Democratic rule.

"I think it's a building opportunity," said Peter Torkildsen, the state Republican Party chairman and former congressman from Danvers. "The political experts said whoever the Democrats nominate will walk in and that clearly didn't happen. Jim was outspent more than five to one and he still got 45 percent of the vote."

Indeed, the closer-than-expected margin has Republicans like Rep. Bradley H. Jones Jr. of North Reading optimistic but cautious.

"I'm not going to oversell that the GOP is back," Jones said. "It's a sign that if the GOP works hard, talks about the right issues, it can be back in Massachusetts."

Sen. Bruce E. Tarr, R-Gloucester, agreed that the Ogonowski campaign's strong showing can be a sign of a Republican resurgence - if Republicans take from it the right lesson.

"A lot of what happened with Jim Ogonowski was based on his own message, his hard work and ability to relate to voters on issues they care about," Tarr said.

The Ogonowski formula consisted of talking about fiscal responsibility and the need to eliminate government waste. And while national Republican presidential candidates court social conservatives, Ogonowski downplayed conservative hot buttons like gay marriage and abortion rights and instead focused on showing himself independent of unpopular Republican President Bush.

"The fact that he looked at issues where there's general widespread agreement, such as less waste in government, resisting the temptation to increase taxes, those mainstream messages worked well for him," Tarr said.

Midway through the race he latched onto an issue - immigration reform - of great local interest that also showed he is not in lockstep with national Republicans unpopular in Massachusetts.

"He tapped into one issue that is where the national party went astray," Tarr said. "Immigration is a real issue. But rather than say he was in favor of amnesty, he said people have to play by the rules. And that clearly gave him a lot of appeal to voters in the Merrimack Valley.

Jones, the leading Republican in the state House of Representatives, said Ogonowski's fierce challenge to Tsongas will at least make it easier for the state GOP to recruit candidates for future races.

That's a big deal for state Republicans. In 2006, Republicans failed to field candidates for secretary of state, state auditor and treasurer, allowing for easy re-elections for Democratic incumbents William F. Galvin, Joseph DeNucci and Timothy Cahill. The GOP dwindled by three to 19 seats in the state House of Representatives, and fell from six seats to five in the Senate.

And in Essex County, Republicans only contested four seats in the Legislature. One was an open one in Methuen vacated when Arthur Broadhurst stepped aside to run for register of deeds.

After the disastrous 2006 election season, Ogonowski's degree of success was an important morale booster, said John Racho, an Ipswich Republican Party state committeeman.

"The biggest benefit is it lifts the mood within the Republican Party," Racho said. "After the last election, as resilient as we sounded, we couldn't help but be a little down. This shows the two-party system in Massachusetts is not dead."

However, Mary McHugh, a political science professor at Merrimack College in North Andover, said Republicans shouldn't get too excited about any lift from Ogonowski's performance. She said any momentum from Ogonowski's better-than-expected run will be dulled by the 2008 elections, when a presidential race will be at the top of the ballot and Massachusetts Democrats will stream to the polls.

"All things being equal, it looks like it's going to be a Democratic year," McHugh said. "We're far too Democratic for the (national) Republican Party to even look at this as a state they can win."

She also said the details of the 5th District race were too unusual - a special election, where two first-time candidates faced off in a campaign where there was no incumbent - to result in conclusions.

"If Ogonowski can be successful in '08, maybe that becomes the spark," McHugh said. "But I don't know how much we can make of a state special election."

One Republican who disagrees is Ogonowski, who has said he would consider another run at Tsongas in '08.

"I clearly think this is an opportunity for the Republicans in the state," Ogonowski said. "If a Republican in this district does this well, we have a great opportunity."