N.H.'s superdelegates could help determine Democratic nominee
The tight race between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama has cast a spotlight on the Clark Kents of delegates — superdelegates.
They don't wear capes, fly or recoil from kryptonite, but they have more freedom than a regular delegate to vote how they want at the Democratic National Convention. And if the race remains as close as it has been, they could wind up deciding the nominee.
New Hampshire has seven superdelegates. Two, Gov. John Lynch and state Democratic Party Chairman Ray Buckley, have not committed to support either Democratic presidential candidate. Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter, Congressman Paul Hodes and state Democratic Party Vice Chairman Martha Fuller-Clark have committed to Obama, while Democratic National Committee members Anita Freedman and Gaetan DiGangi have committed to Clinton.
Political scientists doubt delegates at the Democratic National Convention will ever get to the wheel-and-deal brokered phase since the resulting discontent could thwart a Democratic victory in the general election. But the scenario is possible.
University of New Hampshire political scientist Dante Scala puts the chances at about 10 percent.
For this to happen, Clinton would need to win about 57 percent of the votes in the remaining primaries, at least two of which Obama is favored to win at this point — North Carolina and Oregon. That would put them about even heading into the convention in August.
"That's a tall order," Scala said.
St. Anselm College professor of politics Anne Marie Cammisa agrees with that assessment.
But there is at least one other scenario by which Clinton could take the nomination, and other factors that could come into play.
According to Democratic Committee rules, pledged delegates do not have to vote for a particular candidate. This rule was put in place a few years ago to provide leeway for delegates to change their vote in extenuating circumstances such as the death of a candidate or a massive scandal, according to a New Hampshire Democratic Party spokeswoman.
Considering this rule, and the freedom that so-called superdelegates have to vote for a particular candidate at the convention, and you have a possible avenue for Clinton to persuade delegates to throw votes her way.
And Cammisa said the Clintons are really fighting for the nomination.
"There is a sense she will stop at nothing to get it," she said.
If there is a brokered convention, it would be the first one since 1968.
That was the year Democratic nominee Hubert Humphrey ran in no primaries but gained the nomination after a number of unexpected events, including the assassination of Robert Kennedy, the popularity of anti-war candidate Eugene McCarthy, and President Lyndon Johnson's decision not to run for re-election.
Ever since then, candidates have been pledged to a particular candidate, at least in part to avoid confusion going into the convention, making it not a place for backroom deals, but a place for the presumptive candidate to gain momentum and a bounce in popularity.
In a brokered scenario, neither candidate would have enough delegates to win the nomination on the first ballot. After that round, the delegates would no longer be pledged to a candidate and could listen to arguments — or promises — for voting for one or the other.
"It would be hugely ugly," Cammisa said.
But that doesn't mean it won't happen. This year's primary races have been filled with surprises, twists and turns, she said.
Consider John McCain.
Last summer, his campaign was dead. Today, he is the presumptive GOP nominee.
"You never know," Cammisa said.
What is a superdelegate?
Superdelegates are Democratic officeholders and party officials who automatically attend the Democratic National Convention and can vote for whomever they choose. There are nearly 800 Democratic superdelegates, and their votes are taking on increased importance this year. It will take 2,025 delegates to secure the nomination at this summer's national convention, and if Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama continue to split delegates in the handful of remaining elections, neither will reach that mark without support from the superdelegates.
Source: The Associated Press
New Hampshire's superdelegates
Ray Buckley, state Democratic Party chairman
John Lynch, governor
Carol Shea-Porter, congresswoman
Paul Hodes, congressman
Martha Fuller-Clark, state Democratic Party vice chairman
Anita Freedman, Democratic National Committee member
Gaetan DiGangi, Democratic National Committee member