John Milne
John McCain's visit to New Hampshire last week had to be better than the Republican presidential candidate's recent lousy weekend.
The all-but-nominated Arizona senator spent more than a year being optimistic about the war in Iraq, supporting President Bush and rejecting timetables for withdrawing U.S. troops. His Democratic rival, Sen. Barack Obama, called for a U.S. troop withdrawal within 16 months.
Obama went to Baghdad this month and Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki said the Iraqi government wants U.S. troops to withdraw by the end of 2010. After the prime minister gave an interview praising withdrawal, the president agreed to a "general time horizon" for pulling out troops.
McCain was left to sputter that he was right on Iraq and Afghanistan, while Obama "has been completely wrong."
While Obama basked in the limelight, McCain returned to Rochester and the town hall meetings that brought him success in the 2000 and 2008 primaries.
The good news, for McCain, is that earlier this month, voters considered the economy, not the war, the most important issue in this election, according to the University of New Hampshire's Granite State Poll. The poll gives Obama 46 percent of the vote and McCain 43 percent, easily within the survey's margin of error. New Hampshire truly is in play for 2008; just half the voters have made up their minds, while 28 percent say they're still trying to choose a candidate.
So the economy is critical, but McCain needs to listen to his own supporters on the issue.
Business owners trickled in to Concord's Legislative Office Building earlier this month as Alden Guptill, the deputy New England campaign manager, assembled state and national flags beside a big Navy blue-and-gold banner bragging that McCain had small business leadership behind him.
Guptill set up the trendy visual, but the TV cameras didn't arrive. The 17 business owners behind the lectern far outnumbered the three reporters.
Small businesses are particularly sensitive to economic pressures, particularly costs and tax bills. When the economy is expanding, "smaller firms perform an irreplaceable community function and account for much of the nation's hiring," said Bedford adman Jim Burke, who chairs Small Business Leaders for McCain.
But the economy is "slowing," in McCain's description. He rejects "recession." Whatever. The small business leaders quickly began griping about rising fuel prices and high health-care costs.
Karen Cervantes of Lebanon's Harrison Insurance groused about fuel prices. "We have to heat the office, we have to go out and settle claims," Cervantes said. Carolyn Brown of Conway said the high prices were hurting the tourist economy, which will affect her tailoring business. Brown at least suggested that McCain's effort to eliminate the gas tax for the summer was a start, although most economists call that proposal no better than smoke and mirrors.
A reporter asked about health care. This became a bigger issue than McCain acknowledges. Among small businesses with 200 or fewer employees, only 59 percent offered health insurance in 2007. Six years ago, two out of three firms provided insurance, reports the Kaiser Family Foundation.
The small business owners called for a more active government effort to provide health insurance. McCain offers a passive approach, a tax credit of $2,500 for individuals and $5,000 for families so they can obtain individual, private, insurance policies. This would ease the employers' burden, but employees could wind up paying higher bills. As health costs rise, employees have no clout to negotiate lower premiums. McCain's tax credit won't cover the estimated $12,000 annual premium for a family of four.
Chris Maeda of Broad Street Software, a Salem multinational, says he hires workers overseas because host governments pay for health care. Maeda wants McCain to provide "a basic safety net for everyone, two-tiered, with more coverage for those who can afford it." Raymond Dugdale, a Bedford accountant, urged McCain to restore the old Blue Cross nonprofit monopoly health insurance system on a state-by-state basis, include government employees, and make coverage mandatory.
If these enthusiastic supporters want McCain to do more, think of those small business owners who aren't partisan Republicans, trying to decide whether McCain's proposals are more effective than Obama's.
McCain hasn't taken advantage of this opportunity. Part of the reason is poor campaign organization, as this press conference revealed. But the candidate needs to think about a small business plan that even his supporters believe doesn't go far enough.
The UNH poll reveals that McCain has a good chance to win New Hampshire. But his organization needs improvement, and the senator must come up with a campaign message on the economy that makes sense to Republicans and independents alike.
While Obama was out of the country, his campaigners were busy cultivating the grass roots.
nnn
John Milne is a veteran New Hampshire political reporter and analyst. Reach him at jmilne@mcttelecom.com.
