Don't believe hype, Cards have no chance

First a disclaimer: I am rooting for the Arizona Cardinals on Super Bowl Sunday for two reasons — I am a typical sucker when it comes to the underdog and the fact that the Steelers will win two Super Bowls in four years will bring too many people calling them a dynasty, which is wrong. They are good, maybe very good, but far from great.

The reason I write this column is to save you from the hype that is coming. You know that the Cardinals actually have a chance. In fact, there will be football "gurus" who will provide what seem like plausible reasons why Arizona will win.

I say balderdash. The Cardinals have no chance, other than a miracle.

Yesterday, NBC's John Madden said he was getting "goose bumps" thinking about the game. Well, his bus window must have been wide open.

Anyway, here are 10 reasons why I believe the Cardinals are in for a pasting, a really, really bad pasting:

1. Pittsburgh is much better.

Other than the aberration last year and seven years earlier, both involving your New England Patriots, the better team wins the Super Bowl.

Mind you, the Steelers are far from great. But in this weak NFL lot, the Steelers are the best.

The Steelers deserve some kudos, though, for having one of the toughest schedules in the league. While they lost to the Eagles (15-6), Giants (21-14), Titans (31-14) and Colts (24-20), they beat Ravens (three times), Chargers (twice), Cowboys and Patriots.

2. Cards didn't beat a "good" team.

Even last year's Giants beat Dallas in Dallas and Green Bay in Green Bay. Heck, the 2001 Patriots beat the 13-3 Steelers in Pittsburgh after their historic "Snow Bowl" (or Tuck Rule) win over Oakland Raiders. The Cardinals got very lucky. They beat Atlanta, Carolina and Philadelphia, all decent teams. The never had to play the best team in the NFC, the New York Giants.

What does this matter? If they beat the a physical and good team like the Giants (Eagles are physical, but only decent), I would probably give them a puncher's chance.

3. The Terrell Owens Factor.

Do you ever wonder why the Cardinals are the Cardinals? In the middle of their shining moment as a franchise in modern times, Pro Bowl wide receiver Anquan Boldin, who according to a friend of mine who knows him says he is a Grade A nice guy, made a scene on the Arizona sidelines of the NFC Championship. He was upset he wasn't "in the mix" down the stretch. Rather than hold it in, he went "Terrell Owens" on everyone.

The fact that the head coach didn't quell this issue speaks volumes. They can wax over this as unimportant, but I disagree.

The fact that Edgerrin James was telling people he wanted out of Arizona as the playoffs began is another sign.

4. The Steelers are tougher.

This is one of the underrated, yet always trustworthy trait when it comes to winning the biggest football game of the year. And there is no comparison here. The Steelers, which rank below the median when it comes to skill, take the spot in this category.

They hit harder (which usually means turnovers). They can run the ball when they have to run out the clock in the fourth quarter. They are just bred differently in Pittsburgh, particularly on defense.

5. Eyesight.

We saw both teams here late in the season — the Steelers on Nov. 30 and the Cardinals on Dec. 21. The Patriots were a buzzsaw the last half of the 2008 season, losing only two games, both in November, to Indy and Pittsburgh. The Pittsburgh loss was humbling as the Steelers beat the Patriots up, particularly in the fourth quarter, winning 33-10.

The Cardinals, though, didn't even put up a fight in the snow. The Patriots won 47-7 but the most telling aspect of the game was the fact the Cardinals, needing to improve their lot at the end of the regular season, had nothing in their tank in the snowstorm.

6. Experience.

If the Cardinals were the best team in the NFL, I would probably not even go here. But the fact that the Cardinals are not only a 9-7 team, they are new to football games in January and even February.

Many of the key Steelers from the Super Bowl title three years ago are still around, including Super Bowl MVP Hines Ward, quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, safety Troy Polamalu, tight end Heath Miller, running back Willie Parker, linebackers James Farrior and Larry Foote, etc.

While Cards quarterback Kurt Warner has played in two Super Bowls, that was in, what seems like another era.

7. The quarterback duel.

If you ask 10 "football" people "Who is the better quarterback in this Super Bowl?" my guess is seven would say Arizona's Kurt Warner without hesitation. He's a pure passer, a two-time MVP ('99, '01), a Super Bowl MVP and a guy who has reinvented himself a second time.

But I go with Ben Roethlisberger in this matchup. He is a winner. He has never been about statistics. He is about making plays, which we saw in the AFC Championship game.

If this game does get ugly and close late, which I don't expect, I would bank on Roethlisberger making the big play.

8. Defense wins championships.

New Englanders saw this fact rear its ugly head last February in Glendale, Ariz. Defense, especially great ones, conquers all.

The Steelers led all NFL defenses, almost box to wire, in yards (237.2) and points (13.9) allowed per game. On the other hand, the Cardinals were 19th in yards (331.5) and 28th in points (26.6) allowed.

9. Steelers run the ball better.

While the Steelers are by no means a bone-crushing, rush-oriented offense — they were 23rd in the league at 105.6 yards per game — their best work, or really Willie Parker's best work, has been in the second half when the Steelers had a lead. Parker (100 rushes, 440 yards in the second half of games), who missed five games near the middle of the season due to a shoulder injury,

The Cardinals were 32nd in rushing with only 73.6 yards per game. Enough said.

10. No back-to-back miracle wins.

While the Giants had a masterful defensive game plan in the last Super Bowl, it was a miracle win. They were a good team, but the Patriots were better. Still, the Giants won the Lombardi Trophy.

Can we expect another miracle win a year later? No chance.

Let's be honest. The Cardinals have no right being around this time of year. They're lucky they play in one of the worst divisions and worst conferences in recent football history.

They have probably the best one-two wide receiver combination in Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin, and Warner is still a great passer, but it is not enough.

Unless the Steelers hand the game over, as in four or five turnovers, this game will like a lot of old Super Bowls. A rout.

That being said, I will be rooting for the underdog on Super Bowl Sunday. I will be rooting for the Cardinals. I just won't believe the Cardinals hype.

E-mail Bill Burt at bburt@eagletribune.com.

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