FOXBORO — Prudent investment or wild gamble.
Next Sunday when the New England Patriots host Cincinnati in the 2010 season opener we get the chance to see if any of the time, hard work, money and draft resources exhausted on this defense, will pay dividends.
If a poll were taken among the experts, Bill Belichick probably wouldn't like the results.
Anyway, candidates for stardom are all over the defense: Jerod Mayo, Brandon Meriweather, Brandon Spikes, Devin McCourty, Darius Butler, Patrick Chung, Terrence Wheatley, Ron Brace, Jermaine Cunningham and Jonathan Wilhite.
If you're counting, those are three first-rounders, six seconds and a fourth, all of whom are expected to be thrust into the fray.
While there may be some debate about how good this group is, there is no debate that the defense desperately needs a young player ... or two ... or three ... to become a star.
Let's face it, having arguably the best nose guard in the game in Vince Wilfork during this pass-dominated era of NFL football simply isn't enough.
The bull's-eye sits squarely on the back of Mayo, a third-year inside linebacker who will most likely be named captain by his teammates later this week.
The AFC Defensive Rookie of the Year in 2008 is the athlete Belichick broke the trend for, moving up in the draft to nab him at No. 10 overall.
That year, he delivered. But for much of 2009, Mayo, hindered by a knee injury, imitated a ball in tall grass — lost.
Sure, he led the club with 70 solo tackles, but numbers like that can be awfully deceiving.
A grand total of two solos all year came behind the line of scrimmage. That's two! Only 21 more were made within three yards of the line of scrimmage, with just one forced fumble and no interceptions.
Finally, just one Mayo tackle all year — his lone solo sack against Peyton Manning — resulted in the opponent bringing in the punter or kicker. Mayo literally got his defense off the field once.
That is not the look of a Pro Bowler.
"I see a lot of positive traits in Jerod," said Belichick. "Jerod is a hard-working player. He spends a lot of time in the film room. He knows his assignments. He understands the total defense and what the whole unit is doing, not just his position. He works hard. He's got a positive attitude. He's a winner."
Spikes, at 6-foot-3, 255-pounds, should complement Mayo this year. He's not light inside, like Gary Guyton or Junior Seau were last year. The rookie from Florida should absorb contact and free up Mayo.
"Brandon is a very instinctive football player. That showed up regardless of what tape you put on," said Pats director of player personnel Nick Caserio. "He was around the ball. In the end, how they get the job done and how they produce — however they get to that end game or to that end point, that's ultimately the most important thing. I think Brandon has come in and he's worked hard. That's a good linebacking group."
The coach isn't about to give up on Mayo, but New England is watching.
Another athlete New Englanders expect more from is Meriweather, the first-round pick in 2007. The Pats are quick to point out that Meriweather went to the Pro Bowl in 2009. What those folks neglect to mention is that Baltimore's Ed Reed, Pittsburgh's Troy Polamalu and Indy's Bob Sanders all backed out of the game with injuries, freeing up a spot for Meriweather.
At times, Meriweather looked like an enforcer. At others (see the Saints film) he looked lost. There will be no communication excuses this time around. Meriweather has taken the majority of snaps in camp with the second-year man Chung aside him at free safety. Pats people have raved about Chung's athleticism and physical nature.
"He had a role last year and I think he made the most of that role," said Belichick of the 2009 second-rounder out of Oregon. "And then he went into the offseason and he made a concentrated effort, like a lot of players do, and he really worked. I mean, his work ethic — Patrick really works hard. He's smart. He has good instincts."
Finally, the most pivotal spot on the field defensively will be cornerback. The Pats have searched high and low for a replacement to fill Asante Samuel's shoes.
All eyes are on McCourty and Butler after three years watching Wheatley and Wilhite cough up big gains.
With the season-ending shoulder injury to Leigh Bodden, those two, once believed to be possible training camp casualties, now fill the "nickel" and "dime" defensive back positions (passing situations) behind Butler and McCourty.
In this game of secondary-by-committee, Belichick craves one lock-down closer, a staple on all three of his title teams.
The transition from the Seymour-Bruschi-Vrabel defenses of the past is complete.
The young guns are in place. The Pats have spared no expense.
For the Pats, finding a superstar or two in the bunch will be the difference between good and great.
E-mail Hector Longo at hlongo@eagletribune.com.
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